The Butterfly Effect

Glenn Koenen

Readers of the Unterrified Democrat get to closely follow the challenges decreased state funding impose on Osage County’s school districts.

For example, the Linn R-2 School Board recently increased the adult ticket price for admission to high school basketball games from $3.00 to $4.00: the state sports authority now requires three officials, raising Linn’s home game cost by $150.00 per game. “Board Member Mark Meyer was the lone nay vote, saying he believes a higher admission price may cause a decline in attendance.”

At the same meeting, the board approved spending around $1,800.00 to pay for Wildcat juniors who want to take the ACT. The State of Missouri abruptly stopped reimbursing districts for that testing cost, “since students have been taking ACT prep classes, it makes sense to pay for the test.” [Unterrified Democrat, 9/21/17, pp. 1 & 9]

In the 2004 Ashton Kutcher supernatural film, The Butterfly Effect, insignificant happenings – a butterfly landing on a tree branch in China – create unpredictable impacts across the world.

Actions by the Missouri Legislature, Governor SEAL and bureaucrats perhaps lack that nuance, yet, they do ripple down to a 600 student school district along Highway 50.

And now, tax cutting efforts in Washington may magnify those Show Me challenges.

Remember, in recent years the annual budget process in Missouri concentrated on cutting expenditures: yes, Missouri did increase K – 12 education funding to meet the new, revised (lower) formula, meaning it is correct to say that state will spend more than ever before on public education. It is also true – and more correct – to note that state funding for schools is at least a half billion dollars below what the state had once promised. [ http://www.joplinglobe.com/opinion/columns/sherry-buchanan-invest-in-job-creators/article_fbe25ec3-3b45-5b23-9bcd-c14a3a719b16.html ] That bee stings every district but outstate schools most dependent on state money get hit hardest.

Also, recall that during the past session Governor SEAL claimed Missouri couldn’t afford to provide in-home help to thousands of our neighbors with special needs. When the legislature figured out a way to cover that cost, well, the governor stomped his feet and killed that bi-partisan plan.

Now comes the threat promise of federal tax cuts.

The skeleton of the Trump proposal kills the death tax (paid only by the estates of really rich people with bad financial planners), lower tax rates for all but the poorest workers, and, gives special breaks to lawyers, lobbyists and others with substantial individual income. Shift through the numbers (as the Brooking’s Institution’s Tax Policy Center did) and Washington will be collecting $2.4 trillion dollars less – while increasing taxes on some middle class families by $470 billion. Most of that cut goes to the wealthiest 5% or fewer of taxpayers even before the end of the estate/death tax gets figured into the mix. [ http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/preliminary-analysis-unified-framework ]

All the sordid details can wait till later. For now, let’s concentrate two basic facts…
Republicans in Congress promise to “offset” some to most of that lost federal revenue with cuts to benefit programs, including SSI, food stamps, Affordable Care Act provisions and Medicare/Medicaid. [ https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/09/22/republican-war-against-government-supported-health-care ]; and,
Missouri’s tax code is welded to the national code.

That second point means that decreases in what rich folks and businesses owe the fed will result in less tax money owed to Missouri. The first point means that the neediest Missourians will get less help from government.

As in The Butterfly Effect, actions have unexpected but sometimes deadly consequences. I doubt if members of Congress from Montana want to make disabled Missourians suffer, but, their actions will have that effect.

Back at the Linn R-2 school board, well, they may have to look at raising the price of a basketball game seat to $5.00 next year.

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member